Carbon markets around the world continue to be shaped by a complex interplay of policy shifts, economic factors, and evolving market sentiment. As the global landscape consistently transforms, staying informed about key trends, regulatory shifts, and price movements is essential for organizations navigating both compliance and voluntary carbon markets.
Our latest State of Global Carbon Markets Quarterly Report is now available for download, offering a concise, yet comprehensive analysis to help you strategically position your carbon strategy locally and around the world.
What’s Inside:
- Market Trends and Price Movements: Discover how significant events, from federal executive orders targeting state climate programs to new legislative targets, shaped price dynamics across major compliance and voluntary carbon markets globally. Highlights include reactions of California Carbon Allowances (CCA) to regulatory uncertainty, the swift recovery of RGGI allowances, volatility in European Union Allowances (EUAs), and varied performance in Clean Fuel Standard (CFS) and voluntary offset markets.
- Regulatory Updates and Policy Shifts: Explore the latest regulatory changes influencing market fundamentals, such as the European Commission's proposed 2040 climate target, Canadian federal and provincial policy shifts following the April 2025 election, and crucial developments in China's expanding national carbon market.
- Voluntary Market Performance: Gain insights into issuance and retirement trends, with proprietary indices revealing sector-specific performance for nature-based, renewable, and technology-driven offset projects, alongside the growing market differentiation among voluntary carbon market (VCM) credit tiers.
- Regional Perspectives: Analyze developments across North America, Europe, Asia, and Oceania, including shifts in Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) markets and updates on cross-border carbon trading initiatives.
- Market Correlations: Understand the relationships between carbon markets and other asset classes, revealing how unique regulatory and macroeconomic events played a prominent role in influencing fluctuations across both compliance and voluntary markets during Q2 2025.
Why Download the Report?
This report offers a taste of ClearBlue’s high-calibre Market Intelligence service, equipping decision-makers with a knowledge foundation to:
- Identify Risks and Opportunities: Understand market signals that could influence your organization's carbon credit strategies, such as the impact of the April 2025 Executive Order on North American markets or tightening Clean Fuel Standard targets in Washington and Oregon.
- Optimize Investments: Leverage proprietary pricing data and expert analysis to guide your offset procurement and trading decisions, informed by detailed insights into Category 1, REDD+, ARR, and other offset price trends, and the premium for Tier 1 credits.
- Navigate Regulatory Landscapes: Stay ahead of the curve with detailed updates on evolving policies and compliance mechanisms, including discussions around EU ETS reform, the results of the RGGI Third Program Review, and China's strategic enhancements to its national carbon market.
- Support Sustainability Goals: Align your strategy with emerging market trends and ensure impactful, cost-effective climate action, by understanding shifts in REC markets and the performance of different voluntary credit tiers.
A Snapshot of Key Takeaways from Q2 2025:
- WCI allowance prices (CCAs) remained near the floor price throughout Q2, primarily due to state-level policy inertia and the April 2025 Executive Order issued by President Trump targeting "State Overreach”, which aimed to challenge state-level climate programs. The resulting shutdown risk led to the May auction not selling out for the first time in 5 years.
- Although RGGI was not explicitly referenced in the Executive Order, it was adversely affected,with spot prices dropping by approximately 30% following the announcement. However, expectations of elevated summer electricity demand supported a swift recovery, with prices regaining their losses by the end of Q2.
- California Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit prices declined 20% in Q2. While CARB regulators resubmitted the proposed program amendments to tighten balances, the resubmission confirmed tighter Carbon Intensity targets would not start in time for Q1 2025. On 27 June, CARB’s amendments were finally approved, confirming Q3 2025 implementation.
- EUA Dec-25 prices showed significant volatility in Q2, ranging EUR 60.07–76.75. Movements were driven by correlations with Dutch TTF gas prices, geopolitical risks, and investment fund positioning. On 2 July, the EC proposed a binding target to reduce net emissions by 90% by 2040 (relative to 1990 levels).
- China's Carbon Emission Allowances (CEA) prices extended their decline in Q2 due to elevated selling pressure. Some power producers liquidated surplus allowances to offset financial losses from electricity sales and to comply with carry-over rule obligations.
- In the voluntary markets ClearBlue Category 1, REDD+, and ARR offsets saw notable Q2 price increases, reversing previous declines. Category 2 fell 13.65%, while Category 3 posted modest gains, led by GS renewable offsets.
Drive Your Strategy Forward
ClearBlue’s State of Global Carbon Markets quarterly reports are an essential resource to refine your carbon market approach and navigate uncertainty with confidence. Paired with our timely and intensive Market Intelligence updates tailored per global market and delivered via Vantage, our carbon intelligence platform, ClearBlue clients seeking to mitigate compliance costs, uncover trading opportunities, or align with sustainability goals, are equipped for success in the rapidly evolving carbon markets.
Contact us to learn more or to discuss how ClearBlue can advance your carbon strategy.