The first quarter of 2026 brought significant price movements, regulatory turning points, and shifting market sentiments across the globe. ClearBlue Markets’ award-winning advisory and market intelligence teams, aided by Vantage, our carbon intelligence platform, continually track these dynamic changes to help our clients manage carbon value and minimize compliance costs.
Our newly released State of Global Carbon Markets: Q1 2026 Special Report offers an in-depth look at the supply, demand, and policy drivers shaping the industry today. Here is a snapshot of what we observed this past quarter:
- North American Cap-and-Trade Divergence: North American markets experienced varied trajectories. California Carbon Allowance (CCA) prices declined by 10% as market participants anticipated the ongoing Program Review, targeted for a Board vote in May 2026. Conversely, RGGI Allowances (RGAs) posted a 10% gain, driven by high power demand from AI, data centers, and severe winter weather, compounded by Virginia’s rapid progress toward rejoining the program.
- The VCM Quality Shift: The Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) continues to contract, witnessing notable year-over-year declines in both issuances and retirements. The market is fundamentally shifting toward localized, high-integrity projects, with high-durability removals and North American energy credits demonstrating strong resilience against broader downward pressures.
- EU Market Volatility: Meanwhile in Europe, EUA Front-Dec prices experienced a ~25% decrease alongside significant volatility. This sell-off was driven by investment funds consolidating their net long positions amid fears of supply-side market interventions.
- Dynamic Clean Fuel Markets: In Canada, CFR credits broke above the fund price on tightening balances, while California LCFS prices saw a mid-quarter rally driven by record bank draws before fading on stronger diesel prices.
- Asia & Oceania Policy Moves: China’s national carbon market stabilized around CNY 80, as participants priced in the upcoming transition toward absolute emission caps under the 15th Five-Year Plan. Meanwhile, South Korean KAU prices saw a robust rally fueled by oversubscribed auctions and hedging against stringent Phase 4 rules.
Equip your organization with the intelligence to understand the impact of these shifts. Our full Q1 2026 report dives deep into market correlations, Tier 1 vs Tier 3 VCM pricing spreads, and regional policy changes.
Looking for more? Contact us today to gain an understanding of the services we provide to carbon market participants around the world and the role of Vantage, our carbon intelligence platform.