COP30 will be held in Belém, Brazil, from November 10 to 21, 2025. With the summit now less than two months away, more than half of Parties to the Paris Agreement have not yet submitted updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), highlighting a persistent gap in the achievement of climate commitments.
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are the plans each country submits detailing how it will reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and adapt to climate change, based on national circumstances and capabilities. Parties are required to submit a new or updated NDC every five years (2020, 2025, 2030, and so forth) with each iteration expected to reflect higher ambition compared to the previous one.
The original deadline for the current cycle of NDC 3.0 updates was February 10, 2025. As only 13 to 15 parties met such a target, the UNFCCC secretariat extended the deadline to September 2025. The extension aimed to allow additional time for preparing higher-quality, more ambitious submissions that could be incorporated into official reports and synthesis documents ahead of COP30.
As of September 23, 2025, 50 countries have already submitted their NDCs, with Chile and Tonga being the most recent. According to Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), many countries have indicated that they are preparing new updates for their NDCs, so “taking a bit more time to ensure these plans are first-rate makes sense.” However, for the plans to be included in the UNFCCC’s official NDC Synthesis Report, the deadline remains September 2025. The expectation remains the submission of further NDC updates in the coming weeks.
As the host of COP30, Brazil presented its updated NDC in November 2024, ahead of COP29. The plan highlights commitments such as ending deforestation, adapting to climate change, and advancing a transition toward a fossil fuel-free economy. Key measures include forest restoration, the promotion of electrification and energy efficiency, and the expanded use of biofuels.
Experts note that Brazil’s NDC reflects coherent policies already in place or under development and could serve as a reference for other countries. However, its greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target, 59% to 67% below 2005 levels by 2035, has drawn criticism for not aligning with the 1.5°C pathway. The broad range also introduces uncertainty: the lower target could likely be achieved with domestic resources, while the higher ambition would require external financing, such as revenues from the sale of international emission reductions.
While Brazil's NDC marks a step forward in climate policy, experts emphasize the need for greater clarity and specificity for its objectives to be truly effective.
With COP30 fast approaching, governments are preparing to discuss how to respond to the ambition gap in national climate plans (NDCs). The upcoming UN “synthesis report” is expected to reveal that the world is not on track to meet the Paris Agreement temperature targets a finding that has heightened tensions among Parties. While developed countries, small island states, and Latin American countries are calling for the summit to acknowledge the gaps and establish a clear path to accelerate climate action, a group of large emerging economies, such as China, India, and Saudi Arabia, oppose this, arguing that NDCs should only be addressed through the Global Stocktake (GST), the Paris Agreement’s five-year review process scheduled for completion in 2028.
Established in 2015, the GST is a central mechanism that occurs every five years to assess the world's collective progress toward climate goals, notably limiting temperature rise to well below 2°C and ideally to 1.5°C. This process analyzes three main areas: Mitigation, Adaptation, and Means of Implementation and Support. Its results serve to inform and guide new NDCs, so that each update is more ambitious. The first Global Stocktake began in 2021 and concluded in 2023 at COP28 in Dubai, where it was agreed to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels.
Experts and diplomats warn that this round of NDCs, the third since the adoption of the Agreement, represents the last opportunity to adjust course before the next GST. So far, only 50 countries have submitted their updates and estimates show that even full implementation of current NDCs would reduce emissions by just 5.9% by 2030, far below the 43% needed according to the IPCC.
COP30 is shaping up to be a pivotal political moment, with countries such as Colombia and the EU calling for a clear plan to close the ambition gap, while several large emerging economies and some Arab states are asking for a focus on finance and trade, refusing to discuss NDCs at this summit. The tension reflects a central dilemma in climate diplomacy: balancing the need for urgent action with adherence to multilaterally agreed processes.