Carbon markets went back to trading on their own regulations in Q3. The energy alignment of the previous quarter unwound almost entirely, and what moved prices instead were program decisions: the conclusion of the Western Climate Initiative (WCI) Program Review, the July emissions trading system (ETS) review package in Europe, and a federal carbon price trajectory in Canada that now targets CAD 115 by 2030 instead of CAD 170.
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California and Quebec concluded the Program Review that began in 2022, and attention has shifted to linkage with Washington. CCAs (California Carbon Allowances) lost 2.5% over the quarter and WCAs (Washington Carbon Allowances) fell 27%, while the September RGGI (Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative) auction settled at a new all-time high of USD 37.65.
The federal price trajectory now targets CAD 115 by 2030, pending a federal-provincial compensation agreement due December 1. Ontario EPS (Emissions Performance Standards) traded at CAD 85 to 87 as the program entered its 2025 compliance phase.
California LCFS (Low Carbon Fuel Standard) reached a four-year high of USD 86.75 on record credit bank draws. Canada’s CFR (Clean Fuel Regulations) slipped below the CAD 380 Fund price, and BC-LCFS rose 47% on tightening renewable diesel import economics.
Issuances rose 40.5% year over year to 77.1 million credits, led by Forestry. Retirements fell 23.28% to 25.2 million.
EUAs (EU Allowances) rose about 6% following the July 17 ETS review package, which pushes a zero cap out by nine years to around 2048.
Q3 ended on September 30, and the report covers to that date. There have been a lot of updates since, with the start of Q4 heavy on regulatory news in several markets, including the proposed CFR amendments (our analysis) and the BC election (our analysis). These developments will be captured in the next report.
Download the State of Global Carbon Markets: Q3 2026 report.
Please contact us if you have any questions about this report. For a deeper dive into a particular market, connect with our colleague Natalie Giglio to learn more about ClearBlue’s Market Intelligence packages.