A review of Q3 2026 price movements and policy developments across compliance, clean fuel, voluntary carbon, and renewable energy certificate markets worldwide.
Carbon markets went back to trading on their own regulations in Q3. The energy-driven alignment of the previous quarter unwound almost entirely, with the correlation between EU Allowances and WTI crude falling to zero from -0.56 in Q2. What moved prices instead were program decisions: the conclusion of the WCI Program Review, the July ETS review package in Europe, and a federal carbon price trajectory in Canada that now targets CAD 115 by 2030 instead of CAD 170.
This quarterly report covers those developments and more, market by market.
North American cap and trade. California and Quebec concluded the Program Review that began in 2022, and attention has shifted to linkage with Washington. CCAs lost 2.5% over the quarter, WCAs fell 27%, and the September RGGI auction settled at a new all-time high of USD 37.65.
Canadian markets. The federal price trajectory now targets CAD 115 by 2030, pending a federal-provincial compensation agreement due December 1. Alberta TIER stayed flat in the mid to high CAD 20s, while Ontario EPS traded at CAD 85 to 87 as the program entered its 2025 compliance phase.
Clean fuel markets. California LCFS reached a four-year high of USD 86.75 on record credit bank draws. Oregon CFP fell from USD 155 to USD 85. Canada’s CFR slipped below the CAD 380 Fund price, and BC-LCFS rose 47% on tightening renewable diesel import economics.
Voluntary carbon. Issuances rose 40.5% year over year to 77.1 million credits, led by Forestry. Retirements fell 23.28% to 25.2 million. The Calyx-ClearBlue Index now covers 455 projects, with the Tier 1 premium over Tier 3 narrowing to 32%.
EU markets. EUAs rose about 6% following the July 17 ETS review package. The report sets out what the proposal changes for the cap, free allocation and international credits, and where UK-EU linkage stands.
Asia and Oceania. China’s CEA reached an all-time high of CNY 99.69 before easing. Korean KAUs gained 32% to KRW 30,000, a 4.5-year high.
The report covers the quarter to September 30, 2026.
To discuss what these market dynamics mean for your compliance requirements or voluntary targets, book time with Natalie Giglio.