Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith hav announced that the Government of Canada will refer the Government of Alberta's proposal for the West Coast Oil Pipeline Project (the "Project") to the federal Major Projects Office (MPO), initiating the process for its potential listing as a project of national interest under the Building Canada Act (BCA). The submission outlines the proposed corridor, the size of the pipeline and associated infrastructure, the accelerated development schedule, and the costs and benefits to Canada. The Project is being advanced against the backdrop of the November 2025 Canada-Alberta MOU and the subsequent May 2026 Implementation Agreement and forms a core pillar of the shared federal-provincial ambition to establish Canada as a global energy superpower. The Prime Minister framed today's announcement as part of a broader effort catalyzing over $200 billion in new investment across the country, alongside a newly signed Canada-British Columbia Cooperative Prosperity Agreement.
The Project proposes a new interprovincial pipeline capable of transporting more than one million barrels per day (MMb/d) of heavy crude oil from Alberta to a deep-water, VLCC-capable marine terminal on British Columbia's southwest coast. This supports Alberta's stated goal of doubling oil production to eight million barrels per day over the next decade. The Project is directly linked to the Pathways Project, reflecting the mutual dependency established under the MOU between new pipeline egress and large-scale oil sands decarbonization.
Submission and Pipeline Route
After evaluating both northern and southern route options, Alberta selected a southern corridor running from Bruderheim, Alberta, to a marine terminal at Roberts Bank in B.C., largely following the existing Trans Mountain pipeline right-of-way. The government has positioned this corridor as the fastest and most cost-effective path to expanding Canada's energy exports for several reasons: it leverages existing infrastructure and established environmental and Indigenous engagement from the Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMEP); it minimizes new land disturbance; and, critically, it would fully respect the Oil Tanker Moratorium Act (Bill C-48), materially reducing regulatory barriers relative to a northern route.
The submission notes that the final route and terminal siting remain subject to refinement through continued regulatory processes and consultation with Indigenous groups, landowners and communities in both provinces; the PMO confirmed that consultations with Indigenous representatives will begin immediately.
Updated Timelines and Cost Estimates
Following today's MPO referral, Alberta is targeting a National Interest listing by October 1, 2026, with early construction able to start as soon as September 1, 2027 under the timelines set out in the May Implementation Agreement. Some early construction is expected to begin before a final investment decision (FID) in order to establish work fronts ahead of full construction. The submission anticipates FID between Q1 2028 and Q4 2029, with early construction works starting between 2027 and 2029 and construction completion forecast for 2032 to 2034.
On cost, the submission estimates the Project will cost between $35.2 billion and $43.7 billion (in today's dollars, including contingency, but excluding escalation and financing costs during construction).
Economic Interests of the Parties
Following the submission, the Project will be advanced through a revised proponent structure. Alberta's government, through the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission (APMC), has entered into a non-binding Heads of Agreement with the Government of Canada, Trans Mountain Corporation and Pembina Pipeline Corporation. Under this framework, the Project would be held through a development company jointly owned by the Government of Canada, the Province of Alberta and Pembina, with a working interest reserved for Indigenous partners to acquire at commercial operations. The PMO confirmed that Canada and Alberta will each share equal partnership in the Project, with a meaningful equity stake reserved for Indigenous Peoples. Trans Mountain Corporation will serve as the lead Project proponent, responsible for design, construction, the regulatory process, stakeholder and Indigenous engagement, and subsequent operation, while Pembina will participate as a private-sector investor contributing development and execution expertise, providing an independent perspective on cost, schedule and execution.
Notably, while the governments have confirmed an equal federal-provincial partnership, they have not disclosed the specific economic interests and investment amounts of the individual parties within the joint-venture structure. However, Pembina confirmed through its own press release, issued today, that its economic interest through construction will be 10 percent, with the opportunity for up to an additional 10 percent once the Project enters commercial operation. Pembina further clarified that it will retain full discretion over any final investment decision for its interest, will have no at-risk development capital prior to FID, and has secured contractual protections related to matters such as cost overruns and returns. Definitive agreements among the parties are targeted for September 2026.
Pathways Project and the Oil Sands Alliance MOU
The West Coast Oil Pipeline remains tightly coupled to the Pathways Project. Concurrent with today's announcement, the Government of Canada, the Government of Alberta and the Oil Sands Alliance (OSA) have reached an agreement to advance construction of the Pathways Project The agreement pairs a series of regulatory reforms and growth incentives, needed to expedite oil sands production growth to fill the new pipeline and expand TMEP, with the conditions necessary for OSA member companies to simultaneously grow production and build Pathways, giving industry the certainty it needs to invest and build. Additional information on the MOU with the Oil Sands Alliance for the Pathways Project is expected shortly, with the governments indicating that further details will be released in the coming days.
Final Investment Decision on the Greenlight Electricity Centre
Separately, earlier today Pembina, Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners (MSIP) and Kineticor Asset Management announced a positive final investment decision on the Greenlight Electricity Centre (GLEC), a 932 MW natural gas-fired combined cycle power generation facility. The facility will supply power on a dedicated, behind-the-meter basis to a major new data centre development under a long-term tolling agreement, with an anticipated in-service date in the second half of 2030. The Project carries a total cost of approximately $4.6 billion. Greenlight is owned by Pembina (47.5 percent), MSIP (47.5 percent) and Kineticor (5 percent), with the site permitted for potential expansion to 1,864 MW.
Both the Government of Alberta and the partners directly attributed the Project's economic viability to the suspension of the federal Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) secured under the November 2025 MOU. The abeyance of the CER, which the province characterized as having hurt investment in dispatchable, baseload power generation, removed a key barrier to sanctioning new natural gas-fired generation, with heavy electricity emitters instead to be regulated through Alberta's TIER program. The partners indicated they are already advancing potential additional power-to-data centre projects, including a second phase of GLEC and other gas-fired combined cycle developments, suggesting a scalable new platform for natural gas-fired generation tied to Alberta's growing data centre demand and its "Bring Your Own Power" model.
ClearBlue will continue to monitor the implications of these developments for the TIER program and will provide further updates to keep our clients informed. For information about our market intelligence services for Canadian markets participants, please contact us.