As the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP31) prepares to convene in Antalya, Türkiye from November 9-20, 2026, carbon market participants are watching closely to see how upcoming negotiations will influence market developments.
The summit is a joint hosting effort between Türkiye and Australia, with Murat Kurum, Türkiye's Minister of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change, serving as COP31 President, and Chris Bowen, Australia's Minister for Climate Change and Energy, leading as President of Negotiations.
The World Resources Institute (WRI) points to three areas where COP31 can make progress: accelerating the energy transition, stepping up adaptation and adaptation finance, and recognizing the ocean’s role in climate change. The general sentiment indicates that COP31 will center on transitioning from climate promises to actual implementation, and concentrate on accelerators and barriers to implementation.
The focus on implementation puts Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, the framework for international carbon market cooperation, firmly in view. Countries are increasingly counting on it, as 94% of Parties say they plan to or may use voluntary cooperation under Article 6 to meet their targets, up from 78% in the previous round, according to the UNFCCC’s NDC Synthesis Report.
Evaluating Global Progress Ahead of COP31
Nearly 11 years ago at COP21, 195 Parties agreed to adopt the Paris Agreement with the goal of limiting global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Following the early 2025 deadline for third-cycle Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) outlining 2035 climate goals, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) released its NDC Synthesis Report on October 27, 2026. The report summarizes 127 new NDCs representing 154 Parties to the Paris Agreement, covering roughly 71% of 2019 global emissions.
The report finds that the Paris Agreement is delivering significant progress in incorporating climate considerations in policymaking, but overall progress on emissions remains off track. On average, the new NDCs would put global emissions in 2035 only about 6% below 2019 levels, against the roughly 60% cut needed to keep 1.5°C within reach.
UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2026, published in October, finds that if all current NDCs are delivered and similar efforts continue, warming would still reach about 2.6°C this century.
Momentum for Carbon Markets at COP31
During an August interview, the COP31 President Murat Kurum emphasized the importance of carbon market discussions at the summit, stating that “Mobilizing private capital at the speed and scale required means ensuring every available tool is being used effectively, and carbon markets are one of the most underused. We want to see carbon markets take their rightful place in the climate finance architecture.”
His statement aligned with the announcement that Türkiye confirmed its membership in the Coalition to Grow Carbon Markets, an initiative to strengthen corporate demand for high-integrity carbon credits. Within the Coalition's update, the COP31 President emphasized that the upcoming conference will be focused on implementation, and center on unlocking sources of finance for the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG).
The Coalition had another large announcement during London Climate Action Week 2026, where they shared plans to release a Policy Playbook at COP31. The playbook is expected to outline a range of policy options aimed at accelerating corporate demand for high-integrity carbon credits and support the continued development of carbon markets.
Article 6 - What to Watch For
The UNFCCC's Provisional Agenda for the eighth meeting of the Paris Agreement Parties (CMA 8), held alongside COP31, includes several Article 6 items:
- implementation of the guidance on cooperative approaches under Article 6.2,
- the annual report of the Article 6.4 Supervisory Body and guidance for the mechanism,
- the work programme on non-market approaches under Article 6.8,
- arrangements for funding Article 6.2 infrastructure, processes and capacity-building.
For Article 6.2, the conversation has moved from climate commitments to actual delivery, with early participants having identified various barriers to implementation. The IETA Policy Priorities paper urges COP31 to focus on how to bridge funding, solidify long-term financing, and develop practical solutions to address the identified implementation challenges.
Two dedicated Article 6.2 dialogues are scheduled in the first week of COP31. An Article 6.2 Ambition Dialogue opens on 9 November, followed by an Article 6.2 dialogue on reviews on 13 November, found on the UNFCCC’s COP31 Overview Schedule.
The Article 6.4 mechanism shows a similar gap between momentum and delivery. Of 418 transitioning CDM projects approved by host countries, the Supervisory Body had approved only 38 transitions and four issuance requests by early October, according to its annual report.
The upcoming Article 6 negotiations in Türkiye are set to build upon outcomes from the June Climate Meetings in Bonn, Germany, the preparatory session between the 30th and 31st Conferences. Bonn concluded without agreement on several issues, including adaptation finance, the Adaptation Fund, and Article 6.2 funding.
That leaves many financing discussions up to COP31. To prepare for conversations on Article 6.2 funding, an informal document from the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) Chair sets out three options: funding from the UNFCCC core budget, usage-based fees (for example volume-based fees, cooperative approach fees, registry fees, and/or transaction-based fees), or user fees based on the scale of their participation. Key details, including fee levels and exemptions for developing countries, are still open to negotiation.
Additionally, key carbon registries, such as Verra, Gold Standard, and Puro.earth, have announced their presence at COP31. Verra is hosting several Article 6 and other carbon market discussions in the blue zone, while Puro.earth has said they will be participating in a range of CDR financing and scaling discussions.
ClearBlue will continue monitoring and reporting on COP31 and how negotiations will influence carbon market developments. If you’d like to schedule a conversation with our Advisory or Market Intelligence team, please contact us.
