With just five months to go before the next COP in Antalya, this year’s host, Türkiye, is preparing with an ambitious and voluntary goal for the coming years. The country will seek multilateral support to increase the share of electricity in global energy demand, raising it from the current 20% to 35% by 2035 through the electrification of systems that still rely directly on fossil fuels. This will be one of the summit’s defining initiatives. The proposal seeks to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels and enhance energy security amid growing geopolitical uncertainty and volatile energy markets.
Turkish Environment Minister Murat Kurum, who will serve as COP31 president, presented the initiative. The country argues that increasing electrification in transportation, industry, and buildings can reduce dependence on oil, coal, and natural gas, as well as protect households and businesses from price fluctuations in fossil fuels. This proposal is part of the “action agenda” for COP31, which focuses on voluntary commitments and practical implementation rather than legally binding agreements.
This announcement comes as climate negotiators gather in Bonn to lay the framework for November's summit. Türkiye and Australia are jointly leading COP31 under an unusual arrangement in which Türkiye hosts the conference while Australia oversees the formal UN climate negotiations. Consequently, Türkiye intends to influence the conference through coalition-building and agenda-setting rather than direct control of the negotiations.
Electrification as a Climate and Energy Security Strategy
"Electrification" describes the process of replacing technologies that directly burn fossil fuels with electric alternatives. This includes switching from gasoline and diesel vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs), replacing gas heating systems with heat pumps, and using electric furnaces in industrial processes.
Türkiye claims that expanding the use of electricity across these sectors is one of the fastest ways to reduce fossil fuel consumption and lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
The proposal also acknowledges growing concerns about energy security. Recent disruptions in the global oil and gas markets, linked to the ongoing conflict involving Iran and the United States, have underscored the vulnerability of countries heavily dependent on imported fossil fuels. High fuel prices have already led to increased demand for electric vehicles in countries such as South Korea, Japan, and Italy, as consumers seek alternatives to costly gasoline and diesel.
Supporters of the initiative argue that electrification can deliver climate and economic benefits. Australia’s Climate and Energy Minister, Chris Bowen, noted that reducing reliance on fossil fuels can lower emissions and improve energy security simultaneously. Likewise, Türkiye has emphasized that wider electrification can shield economies from future energy price shocks.
At the same time, the proposal recognizes that many developing countries will need extra support to achieve such an ambitious goal. Türkiye has assured to collaborate with governments and international partners to provide technical assistance, capacity-building programs, and financial support, especially for emerging economies facing challenges such as limited grid infrastructure, high capital costs, and slower industrial transition timelines.
Challenges ahead for the proposal’s development
Although the electrification target has received a lot of attention, experts point out that simply increasing electricity use does not automatically lead to lower emissions. The environmental benefits depend largely on how the electricity is generated.
For example, countries such as France and Sweden produce most of their electricity from low-carbon sources, including nuclear power and renewable energy. In these cases, electrifying transportation, heating, and industry can significantly reduce emissions.
Nevertheless, in countries where coal is a primary source of electricity generation, increased electrification could lead to higher power demand being met by fossil fuel–based electricity, which would limit climate benefits.
This has become a central issue in the discussion around the proposal. Climate analysts claim that efforts to decarbonize power systems and increase renewable energy generation must accompany electrification.
Recent data from the energy think tank Ember is somewhat optimistic, showing that renewable energy accounted for 34% of global electricity generation in 2025, surpassing coal’s 33% share for the first time in a century.
The voluntary approach to the initiative also raises questions about its implementation. Instead of seeking a formal agreement from the nearly 200 countries participating in COP31, Türkiye is attempting to build a coalition of nations in support of the target. The proposal's success will likely depend on how many governments support it, whether meaningful financial commitments are achieved, and how well the target aligns with countries' already existing climate plans under the Paris Agreement.
As COP31 rapidly approaches, Türkiye’s electrification initiative has become a decisive test of whether global voluntary commitments can effectively accelerate climate action while addressing concerns about energy security and economic resilience. In the same way, it will be possible to determine whether this coalition proposal is more effective than a treaty. If the proposal succeeds, it could encourage investment in cleaner technologies, reinforce the increasingly important role of electricity in the global energy transition, and lay the groundwork for this type of multilateral approach to become increasingly common.
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