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The third quarter of 2025 proved to be a period of significant volatility, key policy extensions, and sharp market differentiation across the global carbon markets landscape. From North American compliance shifts to surging prices in clean fuel markets and widening quality premiums in the Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM), staying ahead of these developments is critical.
ClearBlue Markets has just released its comprehensive "State of Global Carbon Markets Global Quarterly Report – Q3 2025". Download here.
This ongoing report from ClearBlue’s Market Intelligence team highlights the latest price movements for the major carbon markets and key market developments over the last quarter. These markets include WCI, RGGI, Clean Fuels, Canadian Markets, Voluntary Carbon Market, the EU-ETS, GoOs, Asian Markets, Oceania Markets, and more.
What’s inside this issue?
North America’s Compliance Shake-Up
North American Cap-and-Trade Markets experienced major movements in Q3. The report provides essential context on the key policy drivers:
- California’s Price Surge: California Carbon Allowance (CCA) spot market prices saw a 12% gain over Q3 2025. This rally was driven by the passage of the Cap-and-Trade extension bill through the California Legislature, extending the program (now Cap-and-Invest) through 2045, pushing CCAs back above USD 30 on the secondary market. Participants are now focusing on the forthcoming Program Review.
- RGGI Elevation: RGGI Allowances (RGAs) remained elevated throughout the quarter, oscillating between USD 21 to 23, primarily due to an exceptionally hot summer leading to high power demand.
- Canadian Developments: The quarter brought significant policy clarity, including B.C. finalizing its Carbon Capture and Sequestration Protocol, Alberta proposing TIER updates with a new Direct Investment Pathway, and Ontario amending its EPS program to allow early voluntary exits.
Clean Fuels Markets Growth
The report details massive price surges and policy tailwinds driving the Clean Fuels markets:
- Oregon’s Price Surge: Oregon Clean Fuels Program (CFP) prices surged from USD 83 to 140 in Q3, supported by record draws in the credit bank and tight West Coast renewable diesel supply.
- California LCFS Gains: California LCFS spot prices climbed 12% to end September at USD 53, supported by amended CI targets taking effect, tightening renewable diesel supply, and key policy developments, though momentum remained constrained by an elevated credit bank.
- Canadian Strength: Canadian Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR) credit prices climbed sharply, moving from CAD 260 to 355 in Q3, supported by the repeal of the federal fuel charge and the phaseout of U.S. blender’s tax credits.
The VCM’s Widening Quality Gap
The Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) is experiencing crucial shifts in supply and demand, detailed extensively in the report.
- Demand Sustained: While issuances moderated (56.29 million credits issued, down from 61.69 million in Q3 2024), retirements continued to grow to 35.09 million credits, reflecting sustained market demand.
- Pricing Divergence: Standardized contracts showed mixed performance: the ICE CORSIA Phase 1 December 2025 contract rose 18% to USD 20.50, and BCT (Base Carbon Tonne) grew 68.8% to USD 0.27. Conversely, NGEO fell 14.7%.
- Premium for Quality: OTC prices confirmed a growing market segmentation: Category 1 (Nature-Based Solutions - NBS) rose 12.9% as buyers sought higher-quality credits. The premium for Tier 1 credits over Tier 3 credits (in the ClearBlue – Calyx Index) averaged 47% by the end of Q3 2025.
EU and Asian Policy Uncertainty
The report covers critical policy developments affecting compliance costs across the EU and Asia:
- EU ETS Rally and Delay: EUA Dec-25 prices moved higher, trading between EUR 69.11 and EUR 77.84, supported by speculative fund buying and the September compliance deadline. However, post-2030 policy uncertainty arose as the Council postponed the vote on the 2040 climate target, delaying the approval until late 2025 or 2026.
- Asia & Oceania Dynamics: While China’s carbon prices fell to a two-year low near CNY 65 amid bearish sentiment, South Korean Allowance (KAU) prices surged to KRW 10,500 due to anticipation of the 4th Period National Allocation Plan. In Oceania, ACCU and NZU prices strengthened, bolstered by Australia’s new NDC and New Zealand’s tighter auction outlook.
Essential Market Correlation Data
The report also includes key data on how carbon markets correlate with broader commodities. The analysis reveals that Q3 2025 demonstrated low correlations with other asset classes, underscoring that unique regulatory and macroeconomic events primarily influenced fluctuations. For example, the report highlights a strong positive correlation of +0.38 between EUA and the TTF (gas) price.
Gain expert analysis and insights into the WCI, RGGI, EU-ETS, VCM, and more.
Download the State of Global Carbon Markets Global Quarterly Report – Q3 2025 here: