The California-Quebec cap-and-trade programme is expected to be long almost 13 Mt in 2019, while offset usage is expected to increase in the WCI market’s third compliance period, analysts said.
Predictions from Toronto-based consultants ClearBlue Markets point to the joint carbon market’s massive surplus of allowances and offsets continuing to grow in the next couple years, putting bearish pressure on prices.
Overall, California and Quebec will auction off or directly allocate 374.1 mln permits over the course of 2019. That compares to projected annual emissions in the WCI programme of 382.4 Mt this year, versus 381.1 Mt in 2018, ClearBlue said in a report emailed to its clients on Tuesday.