ClearBlue Markets | Canada Climate Week
The Perfect Storm Challenging Canada's Carbon Markets
Tuesday, November 25, 2025
2:00 P.M. EST
About this Webinar:
Canada's industrial carbon pricing faces a "perfect storm," with a convergence of pressures from domestic political divergence, wavering trade relations, and the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Provincial actions like Alberta’s carbon price freeze and Saskatchewan’s industrial carbon tax pause risk non-compliance with the federal trajectory. Simultaneously, the EU's CBAM, set for its definitive phase on January 1, 2026, requires clarification on recognition of Canada's sub-national carbon markets and the treatment of industry. The 2026 interim review of the federal benchmark is the critical regulatory milestone scheduled to address these inconsistencies and drive harmonization.
Drawing on analysis from our Special Report Part 1, Canadian Federal Benchmark Equivalency Analysis: Current Landscape and including findings from Part 2, Potential Scenarios and Impacts, this webinar provides essential clarity for navigating upcoming regulatory and market shifts.
Why Attend?
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Anticipate Compliance Risks: Understand why recent policy divergence, such as the carbon price freezes in Alberta and Saskatchewan, puts key provincial systems at significant risk of non-compliance with the federal trajectory and heightens political tension.
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Assess CBAM Vulnerability: Gain clarity on the cost implications of the EU CBAM and learn why the European Commission must recognize Canada's sub-national carbon markets rather than viewing Canada as a single pricing jurisdiction to avoid "unfair treatment of industry".
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Analyze Market Weaknesses: Examine ClearBlue’s market analysis projecting structural oversupply in the federal OBPS and the Alberta TIER market, which risks weakening the price signal and abatement incentives.
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Prepare for the 2026 Review: Understand the urgency of this critical regulatory milestone and learn how the federal government is expected to address transparency gaps, particularly in the federal OBPS, Ontario's EPS, and Saskatchewan's OBPS.
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Identify Future Policy Direction: Review potential policy scenarios, including how harmonization efforts could lead to a Canadian CBAM and how the Carney government may safeguard domestic industry amid potential U.S. trade challenges.
Jennifer has two decades of experience guiding clients through the complex environmental markets landscape, emphasizing policy analysis and forecasting pricing for environmental commodities. Jennifer also frequently presents at conferences and has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, among other publications.
Prior to joining ClearBlue, Jennifer was the Lead Analyst for Low-Carbon Markets at S&P Global Platts, responsible for collaborating across commodity teams to develop and communicate market outlooks. Jennifer also helped build the newly founded environmental practice as Director of Emissions and Clean Energy for PIRA Energy Group, which was acquired by S&P Global in 2016. Jennifer holds a Master’s degree in Economics from Cornell University and a Bachelor's degree in Mathematics from Drew University.
Adi is the Director, Policy and Strategy at ClearBlue Markets and focuses on monitoring the ongoing regulatory developments of different carbon markets across North America. Adi provides policy analysis and strategic insight on carbon pricing and helps compliance entities navigate the regulatory landscape through strategy development and implementation. She supports industrial emitters by communicating organization-specific implications and market opportunities. As industrials increasingly look towards different decarbonization pathways, Adi helps to assess the carbon value of emission reduction projects and additional opportunities in the voluntary carbon markets to help achieve net-zero targets.
Nicholas is a Manager with ClearBlue, focusing on the Voluntary Carbon Market. Tasked with providing insights and in-depth analysis of supply and demand dynamics, corporate demand trends, VCM policy, and integrity standards, including international markets and regulations (Article 6, ICVCM, VCMI).
Nicholas holds a Master’s Degree in Macroeconomic Policy and Financial Markets from the Barcelona School of Economics and has prior work experience in ESG ratings and sustainability reporting.