About this Webinar:
Canada's industrial carbon pricing systems are currently facing a "perfect storm," characterized by the convergence of mounting domestic political challenges, wavering trade relations, and the rigorous demands of international mechanisms like the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
This environment is testing the coherence of the country's pan-Canadian approach. The divergence from the federal price trajectory—exemplified by Alberta’s carbon price freeze and Saskatchewan’s pause of its industrial carbon tax—places these major systems at risk of non-compliance and amplifies the "patchwork problem" that stalls long-term planning for Canadian industry. Internationally, the EU CBAM, set to enter its definitive phase on January 1, 2026, poses potential major cost implications for Canadian exporters of carbon-intensive products (including iron, steel, cement, and fertilizers). For Canadian industry to receive fair deductions, the EU must recognize Canada's sub-national carbon markets.
Clarity on federal benchmark alignment is critical for anticipating regulatory and market shifts in the years ahead. The 2026 interim review of the federal benchmark is positioned as the critical regulatory milestone intended to address program gaps, enhance system transparency, and drive harmonization through 2030. Prime Minister Mark Carney has signaled that strengthening and harmonizing industrial carbon pricing is a top priority for the government.
Download Part 1: Canadian Federal Benchmark Equivalency Analysis: Current Landscape
This webinar will support stakeholders in navigating the complexity of these converging risks, drawing on ClearBlue Markets’ in-depth analysis from Part 1 of our recent Special Report: Canadian Federal Benchmark Equivalency Analysis: Current Landscape, including newly released insights from Part 2 of the report, Potential Scenarios and Impacts.
Why Attend:
- Anticipate Compliance Risks: Understand why recent policy divergence, such as the carbon price freezes in Alberta and Saskatchewan, puts key provincial systems at significant risk of non-compliance with the federal trajectory and heightens political tension.
- Assess CBAM Vulnerability: Gain clarity on the cost implications of the EU CBAM and learn why the European Commission must recognize Canada's sub-national carbon markets rather than viewing Canada as a single pricing jurisdiction to avoid "unfair treatment of industry".
- Analyze Market Weaknesses: Examine ClearBlue’s market analysis projecting structural oversupply in the federal OBPS and the Alberta TIER market, which risks weakening the price signal and abatement incentives.
- Prepare for the 2026 Review: Understand the urgency of this critical regulatory milestone and learn how the federal government is expected to address transparency gaps, particularly in the federal OBPS, Ontario's EPS, and Saskatchewan's OBPS.
- Identify Future Policy Direction: Review potential policy scenarios, including how harmonization efforts could lead to a Canadian CBAM and how the Carney government may safeguard domestic industry amid potential U.S. trade challenges.