COP30 concluded with positive signals regarding climate finance for developing countries, which bear the greatest burden of climate impacts, but it also highlighted a significant gap between global ambition and the commitments negotiators were prepared to make. While the summit delivered notable achievements, such as substantial increases in adaptation finance and incremental progress under Article 6, which governs international carbon cooperation, many participants expressed concern over the lack of progress on the primary drivers of the climate crisis, particularly fossil fuels. Discussions on fossil fuel regulations stalled once again, revealing the deep divisions that continue to shape climate negotiations. This tension was evident both in the negotiating rooms and on the streets of Belém, where protests and calls for stronger action reflected the high expectations leading into the summit.
Mixed Outcomes
COP30 opened with optimism after Brazil urged countries to establish a clear roadmap following last year's global pledge to transition away from fossil fuels. However, progress quickly slowed as longstanding divisions resurfaced. Several nations dependent on fossil fuels pushed back against any reference to phasing out hydrocarbons, echoing the stall seen at previous summits, such as COP27 and COP29. Ultimately, the final text made no mention of a fossil fuel phase-out, and instead introduced a voluntary plan that countries could join without making binding commitments. Many governments and civil society groups saw this as a setback, particularly after an International Energy Agency report released mid-summit warned that global fossil fuel demand could continue to rise until at least 2050.
Beyond fossil fuels, the summit also struggled to deliver strong language on emissions reductions. Key proposals for more ambitious targets were dropped, partly due to disagreements among major economies and the absence of an official US federal delegation, a notable absence given that the US is the world's largest historic emitter.
Other themes also shaped the summit’s complex outcome. China and India emerged as key players, emphasizing their roles in clean energy technology and climate diplomacy. Given the Amazonian setting of the conference, forests and Indigenous rights were expected to feature prominently, yet negotiations failed to secure a roadmap towards the 2030 zero-deforestation goal or explicitly recognize Indigenous land protections. This led to disappointment among local communities, who organized numerous demonstrations throughout the event. At the same time, there was a growing debate about climate science as the final agreement watered down references to the IPCC, which raised concerns about the increasing politicization of climate expertise.
Finance Wins, But Fossil Fuel Divisions Deepen
One of COP30's clearest achievements was providing developing countries with a significant financial boost. Nations agreed to at least triple adaptation funding by 2035, reaffirming their long-term commitment to the USD 300 billion annual target initially proposed at COP29. While the target was postponed by five years, which frustrated developing countries, many still welcomed the increased financial clarity, especially given the escalating climate impacts they face, from catastrophic storms to heat waves and sea-level rise.
However, even with these financial gains, the summit exposed significant political divisions, particularly regarding fossil fuels. Eighty-two countries called for a commitment to move away from coal, oil, and gas, but strong opposition from Saudi Arabia and several other countries, including those in Africa, the Arab world, and Central Asia, meant that commitments to fossil fuels were omitted from the final agreement. This sparked criticism from Latin American countries, including Colombia, Panama and Uruguay, who argued that omitting language on fossil fuels undermined the scientific basis of the negotiations. Tensions escalated at one point when a translator speaking on behalf of the Russian delegation accused some countries of 'behaving like children who want to get their hands on all the sweets', provoking sharp responses from several representatives.
The political discord overshadowed some of the summit's more forward-looking announcements, such as Brazil's introduction of voluntary roadmaps on energy transition and deforestation. Although these roadmaps are not legally binding, they aim to guide future cooperation and maintain momentum ahead of COP31. Outside the official negotiations, public engagement remained strong, with large marches demanding greater protection for the Amazon and a brief fire at the venue adding to the already intense atmosphere.
Article 6 makes progress, but major decisions are still to be made
Article 6, one of the most technically complex and politically sensitive areas of the Paris Agreement, saw some progress in Belém. Negotiators made progress on both Article 6.2, which governs bilateral carbon trading, and Article 6.4, which establishes a centralized UN crediting mechanism expected to replace the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism. As part of this transition, delegates approved the transfer of $26.8 million from the CDM Trust Fund to support the new mechanism, and an additional $5 million is potentially available to support capacity building in developing countries. This financial package was widely viewed as an important step to ensure that countries can develop the technical systems needed to participate in future carbon markets.
However, much of the difficult work on rules and standards remains unresolved. Key decisions on permanence, reversals and risk management, particularly regarding nature-based solutions, were postponed until future meetings. Observers also expressed concern about transparency after negotiators declined to guarantee that all expert panel meetings would be public. At the same time, groups refused to limit trades under Article 6.2. Instead, they decided to look again at technical problems through a planned discussion at COP31 in Turkey.
Despite these limitations, carbon removals received significantly more attention at COP30. The summit hosted the first ever dedicated CDR30 Pavilion, organized by over 90 organizations, and scientific advisers emphasized the need for large-scale CO₂ removal to meet global climate goals. The launch of the Open Standard Carbon Removal Purchase Agreement (OSCAR) , a standardized contract model for purchasing carbon removals, also signaled growing interest in scaling up this sector.