Mark Carney Wins Liberal Minority, Promising Clean Growth and Stability for Industrial Carbon Pricing 

Following a closely contested federal election and extended vote counting into early morning, Mark Carney has led the Liberal Party to a minority government victory. Across the 343 ridings contested in the 2025 general election, Mark Carney’s Liberal Party won 168 seats, just shy of the 172 seats required to form a majority government. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party secured the second-largest number of seats, winning 144 seats and will remain the official opposition. Despite winning 41.4% of the popular vote and increasing the Conservative Party’s seat count to 144 from 120, Poilievre failed to win a seat in his Ottawa-area riding of Carleton. 

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh also lost his seat in the Burnaby Central riding in B.C. The party only secured 7 seats overall, which is 5 seats short of the 12 minimum required for official party status. Singh has chosen to step down as leader of the NDP Party. The Bloc Québécois secured 23 seats, only running candidates in the province of Quebec, and the Green Party won 1 seat. 

Following up on our pre-election coverage, in this webinar, we dissect the outcome and provide crucial insights for stakeholders navigating this evolving landscape. Our experts will break down the key policy changes, analyze their potential effects on market dynamics, and offer strategic guidance.     

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May 5, 2025 01:00 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada)

What is Ahead: Key Liberal Platform Priorities

Carney’s win marks a shift toward economic security and climate-driven industrial strategy, promising to move past political division with a platform focused on affordability, clean investment, and national resilience in the face of threats from U.S. tariffs. In his victory speech, Carney addressed the country by stating, “Let’s put an end to the division and anger of the past; we are all Canadian, and my government will work for and with everyone.” 

Climate and Energy Leadership:
Carney has promised to move forward with major Investment Tax Credits (ITCs), investments in critical mineral supply chains. The Liberals will focus on making Canada an energy superpower, combining traditional resources with clean technologies.

Carbon Pricing Reset and Certainty:
Carney has promised to formally repeal the federal consumer carbon tax. However, carbon pricing for large industrial emitters will remain and be strengthened. The Liberals will work to harmonize industrial pricing across provinces, and provinces will need to align with the federal benchmark, which will be updated to ensure stringency, consistency and transparency. 

Private Investment and Green Growth:
A central feature of the Carney agenda is mobilizing over CAD 200 billion in private capital through a suite of investment tax credits, sustainable finance tools, and a made-in-Canada framework for industrial competitiveness.

National Procurement Strategy:
Expect federal contracts to prioritize low-carbon, Canadian-made goods, from construction materials to EVs, helping drive demand for clean technologies and boost domestic manufacturing.

Global Engagement and Security:
Carney aims to reassert Canada’s role on the global stage, using the upcoming G7 Presidency to strengthen climate cooperation and advance the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Carney is also committed to developing a Canadian Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to promote climate action and competitiveness with trading partners. 

What Mark Carney’s Win Means for Provincial Climate Policy in Canada 

Provinces across Canada are bracing for a new phase of federal climate leadership under Carney, which aims to prioritize coordination over confrontation. Carney’s platform committed to a ‘predictable, credible, and unifying’ climate policy framework.

One of the most immediate changes will be the formal repeal of the consumer carbon tax. This is likely to ease tensions with premiers who have opposed the federal backstop, particularly in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Ontario.

However, the industrial pricing system remains intact. Carney plans to improve the OBPS and harmonize carbon markets across provinces. This will put pressure on provinces that currently operate parallel systems to align more closely with federal benchmarks, or risk losing competitiveness and investment certainty. As the federal oversight over provincial carbon pricing programs through the federal benchmark continues to be a point of contention with the provinces, pushback is expected to persist in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Carney’s approach moves away from top-down mandates and toward investment incentives, tax credits, and market signals. But provinces will still need to demonstrate credible climate action to access full federal support, especially around industrial emissions, methane regulations, and infrastructure approvals.

Next Steps 

With a minority government, negotiations with the NDP and Bloc Québécois will be critical to advancing key elements of the platform, particularly climate legislation and industrial policy. Establishing deals with other parties will allow a Liberal minority government to survive no-confidence votes and pass legislation in Parliament. 

In addition to negotiating with the other parties, the Liberals will need to work carefully with the provinces to implement their climate framework effectively. Carney’s win could usher in a more stable and investment-driven era of climate policy, but coordination and cooperation with the provinces are critical. 

How ClearBlue Can Support your Business 

ClearBlue Markets is an award-winning global leader in both compliance and voluntary carbon markets, helping businesses navigate the complexities of carbon pricing programs across multiple jurisdictions with strategic, data-driven solutions. With deep expertise in environmental markets, regulatory policy, and carbon transactions, our team provides tailored advisory services that help companies minimize compliance costs, maximize market opportunities, and achieve their emission reduction goals. ClearBlue Markets is available to support your company with navigating the upcoming policy developments across Canadian jurisdictions, including development and execution of carbon market strategies and transactions, identification and application support for eligible carbon market funding programs, and support of policy advocacy on behalf of your company and/or industry. Contact us for more information.