The Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) is undergoing a significant transformation. The buzz at recent events like New York City Climate Week and in our own discussions is all about a "reset". But what does this reset actually mean for buyers, sellers, and project developers?
Our recent webinar, "The 2025 VCM Reset: Price Transparency, Credit Integrity & Buyer Confidence," brought together experts from ClearBlue Markets and Rubicon Carbon to unpack the trends, tools, and thinking shaping the market's future. The discussion was rich with data and insights, revealing a market that is maturing and moving decisively towards quality.
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For a deeper dive into the data and the full expert discussion,
you can download the complete webinar recording.
For now, here are the key highlights:
A Tale of Two Trends: Supply and Demand in 2025
A core theme of the discussion was the clear divergence in market fundamentals. The data for 2025 shows a tale of two trends:
- Credit issuances are tracking for a five-year low. This is partly because project developers are delaying issuances to transition their projects to newer, higher-quality methodologies that meet stricter criteria from bodies like the ICVCM and CORSIA.
- Credit retirements are set to reach a five-year high, with over 116 million credits retired from January to August 2025 alone.
This indicates a market shifting from a focus on quantity to a clear demand for quality.
Who is Buying and What Are They Buying?
The webinar revealed distinct preferences among different types of buyers. Corporate retirees, especially the top 25 firms like Shell, Eni, Lenovo, and Salesforce, are driving demand. These major players make up nearly one-third of all VCM retirements and show a strong preference for what the market perceives as high-quality projects, such as forestry, industrial emissions, and waste/landfill gas.
In contrast, anonymous retirees still account for a large portion of the market (43%) and tend to purchase a higher share of renewable energy credits, which the market often perceives as being of lower quality.
The Pain of Price Opacity and the Push for Transparency
One of the biggest historical challenges in the VCM has been the lack of reliable price data. As speaker Ivan Cosentino explained, the market has been fragmented, with prices scattered across multiple sources, making it difficult to assess fair value and leading to negotiations driven by "anecdotes, not evidence".
To address this, ClearBlue developed the Offset Price Discovery (OPD) tool, a live window into carbon pricing. The tool aggregates over 250,000 data points from across the market and uses a hybrid engine of machine learning and statistical models to provide instant, up-to-date bid, ask, and trade predicted curves for specific projects or attributes.
Sara Xi, Chief Product Officer at Rubicon Carbon, provided a user's perspective, explaining how Rubicon uses the OPD's daily data feeds to purchase credits, mark their entire balance sheet to market, and actively manage the price of their curated carbon credit portfolios.z
The Flight to Quality: ICVCM, Removals, and Ratings
The "reset" is most evident in the market's definitive flight to quality. This was highlighted in three key areas:
- ICVCM CCP-Approved Credits: Demand for credits approved under the ICVCM's Core Carbon Principles (CCP) reached an all-time high in 2025, with retirements already surpassing all previous years. This shows that buyers are actively seeking out credits that have been vetted for high integrity. Notable recent approvals include methodologies for biochar, Improved Forest Management (IFM), and Afforestation/Reforestation (ARR).
- The Premium on Removals: Nature-based (NBS) and technological removal credits continue to command a strong price premium. For example, biochar prices remain well above conventional credits, ranging from $95 to $210 per credit. Similarly, demand for NBS removal credits has outpaced supply for the past two years, sustaining their premium over avoidance-based credits.
- The Price-Integrity Link: For the first time, there is clear data showing the market is functioning more efficiently. The Calyx-ClearBlue Carbon Price-Integrity Index tracks the relationship between GHG integrity ratings and price. As of August 2025, the highest-rated (Tier 1) credits traded at an average of $8.29, a 56% premium over the lowest-rated (Tier 3) credits at $5.31. This is a significant reversal from 2022, when the lowest-rated credits often commanded the highest prices.
Hear the Full Discussion
The webinar concluded with an audience Q&A session covering the definition of the "VCM reset", the nuances of different rating agencies, and the important role of both avoidance and removal credits in fighting climate change.
Download the webinar recording.