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The Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) is currently navigating a profound transformation, described by ClearBlue in 2025 as "VCM Reset." For years, the market operated in an immature state where price and quality were often disconnected—a period where charisma trumped quality and marketing narratives outweighed greenhouse gas (GHG) integrity. However, our latest findings in The State of Quality and Pricing in the VCM: 2026 confirm that 2025 was the definitive breakout year for rational price discovery.
While the market still grapples with a dark underbelly of low-quality credits, the data reveals a fundamental shift: buyers are finally using evidence, not anecdotes, to drive value. Below, we explore the critical trends from the Calyx-ClearBlue Carbon Price-Integrity Index™ and outline the technical roadmap required to move the market from the doldrums to a high-integrity future.
The "Flipped Script": Rational Price Discovery Arrives
The most significant takeaway from 2025 is the emergence of a clear price premium for high-quality credits. In previous years, the market was often illogical; in 2022, for example, Tier 3 credits (the lowest rated) were actually priced 20% higher than Tier 1 credits. This was the era of the "charismatic" project, where a good story could mask poor GHG integrity.
Today, the script has flipped. According to the Calyx-ClearBlue Carbon Price-Integrity Index™, the highest-quality (Tier 1) credits now command a 46% price premium over Tier 3 credits. This is a substantial leap from the 28% premium recorded just one year ago.
What is driving this change?
- Increased Discrimination: Following high-profile scandals regarding credit inflation, buyers have become significantly more discerning.
- Transparency Tools: The rise of independent ratings and tools like ClearBlue’s Offset Price Discovery (OPD)—which aggregates over 250,000 data points—has provided a "live window" into fair market value, replacing rumors with hard data.
- Institutional Standards: The ICVCM’s Core Carbon Principles (CCP) label is beginning to act as a quality signal, with CCP-approved credits starting to see a distinct price premium.
The Stagnation of Quality: A "Dark Underbelly" Persists
Despite the good news regarding pricing, the actual integrity of the market moved sideways in 2025. While we hoped for a breakout in quality, the average score for carbon credit issuances reached only 4.1/10 on the Calyx Carbon Integrity Index™.
The market continues to be weighed down by junk" credits, primarily from older hydropower and REDD projects. A stark example of this risk is the Mai Ndombe REDD project, which saw nearly 7 million tonnes retired in 2025 despite being rated in Calyx Global’s lowest tier (Tier 3). Investigations suggest this project carries an over-crediting risk of over 500%, yet 80 percent of its 2025 retirements were driven by just three global energy companies.
However, there is a glimmer of hope: the quality of retired credits is rising faster than issuances. Retirements rose from a 2.7/10 to a 3.3/10 this year, suggesting that while the kitchen is still producing low-quality food, diners are increasingly choosing the healthier options available on the menu.
Market Opportunities: The Super Pollutant Inversion
A key finding of the report is the lack of understanding surrounding super pollutant credits (e.g., methane, landfill gas, and industrial gases). This is currently the only category where the expected price-quality trend is inverted: lower-quality (Tier 2) credits are actually receiving a higher average price than higher-quality (Tier 1) ones.
This anomaly suggests that price discovery for these project types is still nascent. For savvy buyers and investors, this represents a significant opportunity to secure high-integrity mitigation assets at a relative discount before the market fully corrects.
Avoidance vs. Removals: Debunking the Quality Myth
One of the most persistent misunderstandings in the VCM is the belief that removals are inherently better than avoidance credits. Many market participants feel removals are more "real" or easier to measure, but the data does not support this.
In fact, the GHG integrity distribution across 1,000+ Calyx Global ratings is nearly identical for both types. Planting a tree (removal) can have a baseline just as tricky as avoiding deforestation; in many areas, trees grow naturally or are planted for commercial timber regardless of carbon finance. Despite this, removals continue to be priced higher for the same level of quality, indicating that the market still rewards project types rather than verified impact.
The 2026 Roadmap: Where do we go from here?
The most compelling part of our 2026 report isn't just the diagnosis of the problem, but the cure. Calyx Global has identified five specific technical pivots that could fundamentally transform the market. Download the report to discover how our "What If" analysis shows that if these recommendations are implemented, the issuance integrity index would shoot up to 9.2/10 in 2026.
The tools for success are already available. Between ICVCM CCP labels, independent ratings from agencies like Calyx Global, and ClearBlue’s Market Intelligence - VCM offering and Offset Price Discovery tool, there is no longer any excuse for purchasing or retiring junk credits. By collectively rejecting low-integrity legacy credits and rewarding high-quality projects with the premiums they deserve, we can finally build a market that works for both people and the planet.
Contact our colleague Natalie Giglio to learn more.
Register for the corresponding webinar
Join experts from Calyx Global and ClearBlue Markets as we break down the Calyx-ClearBlue Index data and provide a step-by-step guide for buyers and developers to navigate the 2026 market landscape.